Vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs) are diverse and ecologically important ecosystems in the deep sea that are susceptible to anthropogenic impacts, especially from bottom-contacting fishing gear. Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs) and EU Member States are required to prevent significant adverse impacts (SAI) on VMEs by deep-sea fisheries through identifying areas where VMEs occur or are likely to occur. In addition, policies like the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030 require that the distribution of VMEs in the deep sea is well understood.
At present, much of the information on VME distribution comes from records of "indicator taxa" from bottom-trawl surveys and fisheries bycatch. Predictive habitat models (PHMs) are being promoted by ICES working groups to provide a more complete view on the likely distribution of vulnerable habitats and taxa, which could support provision of ICES Advice. This theme session looks at progress in predictive models for VME habitats and indicator taxa and discusses strategies for the use of predictive models in fisheries management advice.
Topics include:
- Frameworks for combining the output of multiple models, with different spatial resolutions and input data types, to produce consensus maps with associated uncertainties.
- Approaches to define the relative certainty of model output as compared to direct observations of VMEs and records of VME indicator taxa.
- Methods to delineate spatial closures based on multiple inputs, using e.g. decision support tools, including methods to account for (or that are resilient to) the uncertainty in predicted distributions.
- Methods and tools to incorporate predicted changes in distribution under climate change scenarios.
- Suggestions to incorporate the output of PHMs into ICES ecosystem overviews.
