Coupled process understanding of marine socio-ecological systems is attracting growing attention and debate, demonstrating that this is an important research area. Formal methods and tools for scenario analysis are increasingly being used in support of ecosystem-based management of natural resources, including marine fisheries. In addition, there is a growing requirement for these methods and tools to enable the evaluation of alternative decision rules that fully encompass (i) the dynamics of marine social-ecological systems and transition phases associated with management implementation, and (ii) multiple economic, social and ecological objectives of management.
While many studies focus on the exploration of possible futures, there is also a need to develop so-called normative scenarios, which consider objectives for the management of ocean uses, and possible pathways for these objectives to be met in the future. This session will focus on the presentation and discussion of recent advances and key scientific challenges in the formal modelling of marine socioecological systems, and alternative management scenarios. Presentations are invited that focus on the methodological dimensions or on practical case studies in a range of settings. These settings may include ecosystem-based management and fisheries restoration strategies. They can also include integrated ecosystem assessments or biodiversity scenarios, such as those which are being developed under the work of IPBES.
