Climate change has already influenced the Bay of Biscay and Iberian Coast ecoregion. Studies have shown that sea surface temperatures have increased. The ecoregion is strongly influenced by upwelling events, which are in turn influenced by wind direction. Off northern Iberia, upwelling intensifies during northerly winds. The winters of recent years have had more northerlies, coupled with strong upwelling events. Furthermore, it has been demonstrated that winter northerly wind regime shifts have occurred since 2005 in western Iberia.
Upwelling intensity and river outflow off Galicia have been seen to affect the degree of synchrony (and stability) of the zooplankton community, which in turn is likely to impact upper trophic levels.
The timing of the mackerel fishery has changed, showing an earlier peak of landings in the Cantabrian Sea. This could reflect a change in the timing of migration in response to climate change effects on upwelling patterns.
An increase in the richness of the demersal fish community, together with a western shift in the distribution of many species has been reported in the Cantabrian Sea and Galicia over the last three decades, along with a northwards distributional change of species previously distributed further south. New occurrences and distributional changes of fish in the Bay of Biscay are attributed to increasing temperatures. Examples include changes in the nursery areas of some flatfish and the increased occurrence of deep-water species previously found further south.
Fish recruitment was reduced by the occurrence of winter northerly winds over the western coast of Portugal at the time of fish spawning. Sea surface temperature, wind regimes, and river discharges have been identified as factors influencing anchovy early life stages at sea. However, no evidence of the effects of warming have been detected during investigations at one of the essential habitats (nursery) of anchovy in the Gulf of Cadiz.
Sea warming, acidification, and eutrophication have been seen to positively affect the palatability of seagrass in the Gulf of Cadiz, triggering an increase in grazing by sea urchins, which may, in turn, have implications for habitat and trophic regulation changes in coastal areas, with potential consequences for artisanal and recreational fisheries.
Climate change-induced changes in temperature and salinity have affected the biological communities of the Gironde estuary and modified its nursery function for marine juvenile fish and potentially migration routes for diadromous species.
At the global level, current greenhouse gas emissions are most closely following the IPCC Regional Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Within the Bay of Biscay and Iberian Coast ecoregion, this scenario projects a 1.5°C to 3.0°C warming above mean conditions for the years 2050–2099. Positive anomalies are forecasted everywhere in the region, and are most pronounced in the shelf areas (Figure 8).
*Climate change is a directional and non-random process that affects both the mean and the variance in environmental parameters and ecosystem state components, as well as human activities and resultant pressures. The human component of climate change is caused by the release of CO2 and other gases. This release also has other effects such as acidification of marine waters.