Analysis by RCT3 ver3.1 of data from file : data_new.txt North Sea Cod as 1-group: Post 1976, 0 & 1 group data Data for 5 surveys over 11 years : 1976 - 1986 Regression type = C Tapered time weighting applied power = 3 over 20 years Survey weighting not applied Final estimates not shrunk towards mean Estimates with S.E.'S greater than that of mean + excluded Minimum S.E. for any survey taken as .20 Minimum of 3 points used for regression Forecast/Hindcast variance correction used. Yearclass = 1979 I-----------Regression----------I I-----------Prediction---------I Survey/ Slope Inter- Std Rsquare No. Index Predicted Std WAP Series cept Error Pts Value Value Error Weights EGFSO DGFSO IYFS1 .44 4.98 .12 .912 3 2.88 6.25 .244 .402 EGFS1 .45 2.60 .06 .977 3 8.55 6.44 .131 .598 DGFS1 VPA Mean = 6.25 .277 .000 Yearclass = 1981 I-----------Regression----------I I-----------Prediction---------I Survey/ Slope Inter- Std Rsquare No. Index Predicted Std WAP Series cept Error Pts Value Value Error Weights EGFSO 1.82 -7.18 .26 .813 4 8.98 9.17 1.392 .000 DGFSO IYFS1 .60 4.67 .27 .781 5 2.32 6.06 .380 .217 EGFS1 .65 .97 .14 .930 5 8.08 6.26 .196 .783 DGFS1 VPA Mean = 6.21 .434 .000 Yearclass = 1982 I-----------Regression----------I I-----------Prediction---------I Survey/ Slope Inter- Std Rsquare No. Index Predicted Std WAP Series cept Error Pts Value Value Error Weights EGFSO 1.01 -1.55 .80 .250 5 5.54 4.04 1.784 .000 DGFSO IYFS1 .62 4.65 .28 .718 6 1.59 5.64 .414 .000 EGFS1 .66 .92 .13 .924 6 7.34 5.79 .184 1.000 DGFS1 .92 2.09 .21 .935 3 3.13 4.97 .685 .000 VPA Mean = 6.23 .392 .000 Yearclass = 1983 I-----------Regression----------I I-----------Prediction---------I Survey/ Slope Inter- Std Rsquare No. Index Predicted Std WAP Series cept Error Pts Value Value Error Weights EGFSO .55 2.03 .50 .481 6 9.17 7.10 .810 .000 DGFSO .46 3.97 .13 .955 3 4.81 6.17 .292 .269 IYFS1 .64 4.60 .25 .778 7 2.79 6.39 .331 .210 EGFS1 .74 .29 .15 .914 7 8.72 6.73 .210 .521 DGFS1 .70 3.16 .26 .872 4 4.81 6.53 .443 .000 VPA Mean = 6.13 .435 .000 Yearclass = 1984 I-----------Regression----------I I-----------Prediction---------I Survey/ Slope Inter- Std Rsquare No. Index Predicted Std WAP Series cept Error Pts Value Value Error Weights EGFSO .47 2.57 .47 .475 7 3.83 4.36 .904 .000 DGFSO .51 3.80 .13 .938 4 .83 4.22 .485 .000 IYFS1 .64 4.60 .23 .785 8 .64 5.01 .385 .476 EGFS1 .70 .55 .20 .833 8 6.04 4.78 .367 .524 DGFS1 .67 3.26 .23 .863 5 1.53 4.27 .601 .000 VPA Mean = 6.15 .408 .000 Yearclass = 1985 I-----------Regression----------I I-----------Prediction---------I Survey/ Slope Inter- Std Rsquare No. Index Predicted Std WAP Series cept Error Pts Value Value Error Weights EGFSO .43 2.85 .39 .775 8 6.68 5.73 .488 .063 DGFSO .43 4.13 .12 .981 5 4.97 6.28 .178 .372 IYFS1 .80 4.20 .29 .859 9 2.90 6.51 .363 .113 EGFS1 .78 -.07 .21 .921 9 8.15 6.25 .257 .225 DGFS1 .60 3.57 .19 .957 6 4.72 6.39 .256 .227 VPA Mean = 5.96 .669 .000 Yearclass = 1986 I-----------Regression----------I I-----------Prediction---------I Survey/ Slope Inter- Std Rsquare No. Index Predicted Std WAP Series cept Error Pts Value Value Error Weights EGFSO .43 2.87 .39 .778 8 4.57 4.82 .550 .091 DGFSO .43 4.13 .12 .982 5 3.64 5.70 .167 .689 IYFS1 .80 4.19 .29 .862 9 2.36 6.09 .354 .220 EGFS1 DGFS1 VPA Mean = 5.95 .675 .000 Year Weighted Log Int Ext Var VPA Log Class Average WAP Std Std Ratio VPA Prediction Error Error 1979 580 6.36 .15 .10 .40 801 6.69 1980 No valid surveys 1981 501 6.22 .18 .09 .23 566 6.34 1982 325 5.79 .20 .00 .00 265 5.58 1983 671 6.51 .15 .17 1.32 553 6.32 1984 132 4.89 .27 .12 .19 94 4.54 1985 538 6.29 .12 .08 .47 1986 300 5.71 .17 .23 1.87